NWS Continued Ice Storm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007
.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN A SWATH
OF ICE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER... COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE... WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WE WILL CONTINUE THE ICE STORM WARNING FOR TODAY.
IN THE SOUTHEAST... WE WILL GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE GENERALLY RIGHT AT
FREEZING AND SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING. THIS FACTOR...
COMBINED WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN THE AREA... WILL
REDUCE THE RISK OF SUBSTANTIAL ICING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES... WE
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION ALSO EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER. ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED T-STORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AT THE
SURFACE... BUT BELIEVE THE SHALLOW COLD DOME WILL NOT ERODE AS
QUITE AS FAST AS THEY INDICATE. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE ONLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. MEANWHILE... THE HIGHS
WILL RISE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN CENTRAL SECTIONS
LIKELY RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ICE STORM WARNING FOR
TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A STILLWATER... TO OKC... TO
MANGUM LINE... ALTHOUGH WITH EVER INCREASING WARM ADVECTION JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER... TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WARNING AREA.
HOWEVER... A COUNTER ARGUMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE IS
THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A LITTLE STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE MONDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... LIKELY REFLECTING THE
PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THIS AREA
COULD ACT TO PUSH A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS... WITH LOWER WET BULB
TEMPERATURES... A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY... WHICH COMBINED WITH THE EVER SO SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH... COULD NUDGE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 32 41 31 / 90 70 80 60
HOBART OK 32 30 38 29 / 100 80 70 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 36 34 42 33 / 80 70 70 50
GAGE OK 29 26 33 22 / 90 80 70 30
PONCA CITY OK 31 30 35 28 / 90 90 80 50
DURANT OK 40 39 55 39 / 60 60 70 80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>025-034-035.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ026>033-
036>047-050.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ048-
051-052.
TX...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.