Messy Weather Pattern For Oklahoma

Provided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print000
FXUS64 KOUN 092106
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

306 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. BAND
OF HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS REFORMED FROM WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK FAIRLY CLOSE TO H8 BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO OK AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY EWD. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN
AS COLD AIR BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. SOME ELEVATED INSTAB EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGHTHE EVENING WITH SOME THUNDER LIKELY.
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SLEET MIX IN WITH THE FREEZING FRAIN WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW RAPIDLY LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR MODIFIES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
AND KEPT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN PROGS. THUS WILL CONTINUE ICE
STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL LIKELY
SEE AREAS IN THE SE WHERE COLD AIR IS THE SHALLOWEST NUDGE ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST THE
WARNING AS THIS OCCURS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO MODIFY MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE THE ICE STORM WARNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FA
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MUCH OF THAT AREA SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD AND FRONT
SURGES BACK THROUGH THE REGION. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPES
THAT FAR OUT. WILL BROAD BRUSH A BIT MORE WITH THREAT OF WINTERY
PRECIP CONTINUING MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRAL AND WEST. WITH
ONGOING WINTER EVENT...NOT MUCH TIME DEVOTED TO LATTER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON S/W PROGGED TO
DROP SEWD INTO THE ROCKIES IN THE FRIDAY/SAT TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 26 32 32 39 / 60 70 70 70
HOBART OK 25 32 32 37 / 60 80 80 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 29 36 34 40 / 80 70 70 70
GAGE OK 21 29 26 33 / 30 80 80 70
PONCA CITY OK 22 31 30 35 / 30 70 80 70
DURANT OK 31 40 39 49 / 90 70 60 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>025-034-035.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ026>033-036>048-
050>052.
TX...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
20/02