Weather Not As Bad As Expected

In the short term.. models have completely busted today and even short
range models are handling current situation poorly with shallow arctic
air. Given 20 years of forecast experience in this area, I believe
cloud deck that is eroding from west to east west from Medford to
Fairview to Weatherford to west of Frederick will fill back in westward
after dark with freezing drizzle resuming. Dew points are below
freezing northwest of a line from Altus to Chickasha to Norman to
Seminole to Okemah to Muskogee. Areas of central, north-central and
northeast Oklahoma north of that line might see some slight icing as we
go into the evening hours. As we go into the overnight period, a weak
front not depicted on current surface maps should increase winds out of
the north and potentially subliminate and evaporate moisture off the
roadways. Bottom line is roads should not be slick in the morning if
that happens.

Above the cold layer, CAPE has increased to over 1000 j/kg. However,
looking at water vapor there are no defined triggers for convection.
Texas is capped south of the warm front but that may change as we head
towards sunset. Overall I am not too excited about convective potential
in OK this evening. Given lack of CAPE in Arkansas, I suspect speed
sheer may not be enough for tornadic activity if anything were to
develop anyway. I will send another update if anything else pops out.

Greg Whitworth Fox 25-Used with permission