Warming Up in OK/High Fire Danger

Latest surface analysis shows a warm front developing across the eastern
Texas panhandle. This front will move rapidly across the state as we go
through the morning hours. It is possible I have lows too cold in some
areas for the morning. In some areas lows will be reached before
midnight, OKC will likely be one of those cases. I saw it dip down to
41 briefly.

Strong winds are in the forecast for Monday and high fire danger. By
daybreak, a pacific cold front will likely be sitting near the western
border, with a dry line somewhere close to highway 183 in western OK.
The entire system will move rapidly eastward, with the cold front
reaching OKC around noon. Winds ahead of the front will start off out
of the south, then turn briefly southwest with the dry line passage,
then northwest as the cold front moves in directly behind it. There is
very little forcing with this front, the upper level wave following it
is positively tilted and heavily sheered. Therefore, I don't think
we'll see an precip develop along it until it is almost to the Arkansas
border. Best chance of precip looks to be in northeast OK and southwest
MO, with possibly a little bit of light rain falling near the KS border
counties.

HPC guidance shows a weak front laying east-west across Nebraska,
forecast to drift southwest and dissipate as it arrives in Oklahoma
Monday evening. It should enter northwest OK during the afternoon and
brush western OK as it dissipates.

I may need to knock lows for Tuesday morning a few more degrees, closer
to 31 or so after seeing new 0z data. Highs on Tuesday will be mostly
in the 40s behind the front. Winds will be brisk in the morning but
calming by sunset. The area of high pressure moving in looks stronger
than previously thought, up to around 1030 mb Wednesday morning.
GFS/ETA MOS have been forecasting dew points around 22 in OKC for
Wednesday morning. With calm winds, I have lowered the low below all
guidance to 23. Each run gets progressively colder as the models figure
this out.

Wednesday looks very pleasant with lots of sun and a southwesterly
wind. This should drive highs into the 50s. New ETA looks a little too
cool at 51. With southwesterly winds I will go above guidance and
closer to previous 12z forecast.

A weak cold front arrives around 6 pm Wednesday, lying along I-40. This
front is very weak and should wash out and retreat north as a warm front
Thursday morning. Thursday's strong south winds should drive highs
into the 60s. Fire danger will be high again.

A weak front arrives Friday morning around sunrise in OKC. It has some
weakly sheered upper support with it, so I have added 20% pops to
Friday. There is plentiful moisture just crossing into OK from TX by
sunrise. Skies should be cloudy Friday morning leading to lows near
40. Winds turn to the northeast on Friday with highs in the 50s.

Winds turn back to the south shortly after sunrise on Saturday. Despite
a few clouds shown by some models, I am going sunny as high pressure
will be in the area around daybreak. Fire danger will be moderately
high on Saturday with breezy south winds and temperatures near 60.

It becomes very windy Sunday and moisture returns from the south. A
cold front looks to arrive around noon, with a significant long wave
trough right behind it. There is enough upper support that we should
consider the possibility of severe weather if the front comes in later
than noon. I would definitely be looking at possible severe in eastern
OK and western Arkansas. It appears this front has some arctic air
behind it, but the depth of it is unknown. The strongest high and
coldest air looks to remain well to our north. Right now it appears
precip may shut down before the 540 rain/snow line arrives but it is too
close to call. Most of the wrap around looks to stay in Kansas and
Missouri but I would not be surprised to see some light snow in
northeast OK on Monday. The cold spell does not look to last long as
winds turn back to the south the following Tuesday.


graphics available at www.okcfox.com

Day 8-9 forecast:

Monday March 03 - 28/38 Mostly Cloudy
Tuesday March 04 - 25/56 Sunny

Greg Whitworth/Forecaster/Used With Permission