Significant Changes Due For Oklahoma Area

Written by Greg Whitworth

Significant changes to the forecast have been made, including two icing
situations now showing up.

As we go into Sunday, an arctic cold front will extend from Woodward -
Chickasha - Ada - McAlester - Poteau by sunrise. North of the front,
temperatures should be in the 20s at daybreak. South of the front, it
will mostly be in the 30s.

The front will ooze southwest as the day goes on. North of the front,
highs will be in the 30s for the northeast and north-central OK, 40s in
central and west central, with a few 50s in southeast OK and some 60s
along the Red River. HPC guidance suggests front may actually slip
farther than any models are predicting. They actually drive the front
across the river into Texas by evening, and I believe this is a good
possibility. With the new 0Z ETA out, I have dropped highs by a few
degrees areawide, except southeast OK where I actually raised
temperatures slightly.

A deep plume of gulf moisture will start it's march northward on Sunday
and arrive in Oklahoma Sunday night - Monday AM. A few miles north of
the front, which should be near the Red River, temperatures will be
below freezing. This is a classic overrunning setup, with freezing
drizzle appearing likely across the northern half of the state,
including OKC. Right now I am placing the freezing drizzle north of a
line from Cordell to Chickasha to Purcell to Seminole to Muskogee. I am
wondering if I might be a couple of degrees too low with temperatures
tomorrow night, but with the front showing such strong properties, I
will not make any changes. Afternoon temperatures were in the 10s on
Saturday in Nebraska, if that gives any indication.

Temperatures should recover enough across all the area for a changeover
to drizzle through the day Monday. Down along the red river, severe
weather is likely to erupt along the warm front. There could be
significant severe weather, with tornados, large hail and damaging winds
mainly across north Texas. I totally disagree with SPC Day 3 which had
most of Oklahoma outlooked. NWS Norman apparently disagreed too, and
pushed outlook somewhat south. I think even NWS is too far north. Once
you get north of OKC, there will likely be little if any severe risk. I
think north of the front there may be some hailers but once you get
entrenched in the cold air in northern OK air should become more
stable. Most of the severe weather will likely ride the front. Models
have been wanting to bring the front northward as a warm front. This is
a typical bias seen. Cold arctic air is extremely difficult to
displace, so despite strengthening gradient with storm system out west,
I do not believe it can yank the front north much at all. This should
keep tornado threat confined to southern Oklahoma or possibly north
Texas. If the front does actually move across the river into Texas,
there's a pretty good possibility it may never make it back across the
river into Oklahoma. That would place most of the severe weather in
north Texas.

Drizzle and overrunning will hold down temperatures on Monday. I have
gone 1 to 2 categories below newest MOS guidance for highs given thick
cloud cover during max heating. I wasn't quite sure what to do with
Tuesday morning. A reinforcing surge of cold air is seen making it's
way down to meet the other front. It will likely increase winds which
could dry roads out, preventing another slick morning. Pseudo-warm
front tail will extend north and south from eastern Kansas into central
OK by daybreak but may be washed away by the secondary cold push.

Northerly winds on Tuesday should hold temps down into the lower 40s
again with mostly cloudy skies. I have gone below MOS again on this day.

There should be a very nice warm up on Wednesday with plenty of
sunshine. However, fire danger will likely reach the extreme category
with strong south winds and highs in the 60s across the southern half of
the state.

A weak cold front arrives for Valentines day but will have a strong
north wind with it. Clouds will roll in as well and it should become
cloudy by Thursday evening. This is where it gets interesting. A
cutoff low in the southwest will start rolling east. Right now it
appears the track of the low would be along the Red River. However, the
GFS keeps the 540 (snow line) way to the north. I am having a hard time
believing that. If that is true though, it would probably wind up being
an icy event. BUFKIT soundings have been cranking out tons of Freezing
Rain (2" in OKC, less than an inch north) for Friday night into
Saturday. Precip type is in question but more than likely it will be
frozen if the low does track across the river. GFS wants to pull the
system northeast as it heads into Arkansas but I do not believe this
will happen. All winter the GFS has wanted to pull systems radically
northeast near the Arkansas border and it has not verified. System will
likely continue to track straight east into Arkansas with a slight
northerly track.

After system clears out, there should be a few days of calm weather
Sunday - Tuesday.. however the following Tuesday looks windy as south
winds return.

Updated graphics on www.okcfox.com