Arctic Front on Oklahoma's Doorstep

Fire danger will be somewhat high today despite recent rainfall. Strong
south winds will gust to near 30 mph during the afternoon across much of
the area. Highs will reach the lower 60s with a few mid-60s in the far
western counties.

An arctic cold front will make it's way south, entering northern
Oklahoma around midnight and reaching I-40 by sunrise. Behind the
front, strong northerly winds will usher in falling temperatures.
Temperatures will likely fall in OKC from a morning low around 37 to 31
degrees by afternoon. Drizzle will develop behind the front across much
of the area, changing over to freezing drizzle first across northern
Oklahoma, then central Oklahoma by afternoon.

Roads will slicken up as we go through the afternoon in northern OK and
in the evening across central parts of the state. Models are developing
an area of sleet from central into north-central Oklahoma early Thursday
morning which lifts into southeast Kansas. This is in association with
a wave coming out from the southwest US. The area should become buoyant
as we head into early Thursday and vorticity increases. There are still
indications most of the precipitation will remain rain south of a line
from Duncan to Ada to the lower elevations of the Winding Stair
mountains of southeast OK. North of that area and South of a line from
near Hollis to OKC to Muskogee the primary precipitation should be
freezing rain and freezing drizzle. North of that area, including north
of OKC, the primary precipitation mode appears to be sleet.

The new 6Z NAM develops a second area of freezing rain/sleet across
central and southwest Oklahoma Thursday evening. Should this happen,
there could be over half an inch of freezing rain across central and
southern Oklahoma, enough to be a concern for power outages. This area
then moves into the northeast 1/3rd of the state, the same area affected
by the sleet earlier. I suspect northeast OK could see the heaviest
accumulations as a result. The freezing line should be at it's farthest
south coming up Thursday night, and should cross the Red River.

There appears to be a dry slot working in on the southern side of the
storm coming up for Friday morning. This should effectively shut precip
down, except for a small wrap around snow area which will affect far
northwest Oklahoma. Wasn't sure what to do with temperatures but went
below MOS guidance again.

Winds finally turn to the south on Saturday but a strong shortwave is
seen moving across northern OK by around 6 pm. Timing of this system
might be slightly off as the GFS seems slightly fast with movement of
the systems. It may be just strong enough to develop some light precip
across northern OK but I have some doubts considering we will have just
had arctic air departing.

Sunday should return to temperatures near 60 and strong south winds.
Fire danger will be somewhat high on Sunday.

Another system arrives on Monday. It will have another shortwave
associated with it. Right now I am thinking a dryline will move quickly
across the area, reaching OKC around noon. We should be dry slotted
thereafter with plenty of sun and southwest winds. A cold front will
follow within a few hours. I wasn't sure what to do with the
temperatures this day. Previous forecaster had 50, I had 66, so I split
the difference down the middle with 58 which matches the latest GFS
MOS. New BUFKIT sounding has a high around 67. With it being this many
days out, it is impossible to determine when that front will come through.

Next Tuesday looks colder with highs in the upper 40s and lots of
clouds. A significant high settles in on Wednesday morning then
Wednesday afternoon turns windy with highs in the 50s.

graphics available at www.okcfox.com

Day 8-9 forecast: 29/48 27/53

Greg
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