Severe Weather Outbreak Expected In Southern Mid West Tuesday

ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
245 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008
...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...
A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
AN INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE...A HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
INTENSE WIND FIELDS WILL COME TOGETHER TO ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
HAIL...INTENSE WIND FIELDS WILL PRODUCE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LOCATED AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES ALSO BEING POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OVER AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BEGINNING BETWEEN AROUND 10 AM AND
NOON. THIS SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL REACH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AROUND THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 2 PM TO 4 PM. EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI WILL BEGIN TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY AROUND
5 PM TO 7 PM.
NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER PLANS IN ADVANCE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER. PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...OR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION...FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR..BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH..
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
244 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...
A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN NOON CST
AND 10 PM CST TUESDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
BETWEEN 4 PM CST TUESDAY AND 2 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 2 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ALL CITIZENS LIVING IN THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONS NECESSARY TO PROTECT YOURSELF IF
SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. SEVERE
WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SERN MO...SRN
IL...SRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN KY...MIDDLE AND WRN TN...PARTS OF NRN
AND WRN AL...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN MS...PARTS OF NRN LA......
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK LIKELY OVER LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY...
THE LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN U.S. WILL AGGRESSIVELY MOVE FROM
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TUE AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM
ENTERS PAC NW.
AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NRN TX AND TO THE S OF FRONTAL
ZONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS.
WITH 60F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE NWD TO FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR E AS SRN
IN/OH AND MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS GULF STATES FROM ERN TX TO AL...THE
THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT WILL TRACK FROM SRN
PLAINS TO LOWER OH/WRN TN VALLEYS BY TUE NIGHT. COUPLED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET BACKING AND INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 50-60KT
LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...VERY
STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUE AM AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW ERN OK/NRN TX INTO WRN AR. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS MID MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON SURFACED BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
SECTOR SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS/WRN TN VALLEYS.
WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
AND SUCH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH
WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND
WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU
THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT
AND EVOLVE MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK
PARTICULARLY IN AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPES ARE AVAILABLE FROM TN SWD.