Storm System/NWS

000
FXUS64 KOUN 050859
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE
POINT SETTING UP IN FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WILL TRACK EAST THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXTEND WELL BACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND HAIL AS FAR
NORTH AND WEST AS ENID...CLINTON...LAWTON..HENRIETTA TEXAS. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION...AND A PACIFIC
FRONT...TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE THIS MORNING...SO THERE IS PLENTY
OF LIFT OCCURRING. EXPECT STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ERUPT AS THE LIFT REMOVES THE CAP IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. POSSIBLY A SEVERE SQUALL
LINE...THOUGH WITH TIME OF DAY...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AS
NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS STABLE.

FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY...A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN AS THE
COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD. AFTER A BRIEF CHANCE FOR SNOW IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SUSPECT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE ONLY DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT RAIN. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN REACH
FREEZING...FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPS BORDERLINE...HOWEVER...AND MAINLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN
THE DAYTIME OCCURRENCE OF THE PRECIP...AND RECENT WARM
WEATHER/GROUND...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. IT MAY BECOME A SHORT TERM PROBLEM...OVER A SMALL AREA...OF
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WRAP AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS THEN DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD...AS BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS. A GLANCING BLOW OF CANADIAN AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNT OF
COOLING...GIVEN EXPECTED LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND BACKDOOR NATURE OF
THE FRONT. MADE SOME CHANGES TO REFLECT THIS THINKING AND BLEND WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 45 26 48 28 / 80 20 0 0
HOBART OK 41 25 51 29 / 40 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 28 55 34 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 35 18 44 22 / 70 30 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 38 21 41 26 / 80 40 0 10
DURANT OK 68 31 50 34 / 90 0 0 0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BURKE