MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OK...SRN/ERN KS...WRN/NRN MO AND
CENTRAL IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
244
...
245
...
VALID 020304Z - 020500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 244...245...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER
SERN KS/SWRN MO FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE
IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW/S 244 AND 245
BEFORE WW EXPIRATION TIME/S OF 06Z. THEREFORE... REPLACEMENT WW/S
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD /EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD NWRN OK AT 03Z/. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WAS
RETREATING AND WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE FROM 2000-4000 J/KG/. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF WW/S 244/245 BETWEEN 04-06Z. STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS
ANTICIPATED SQUALL LINE /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 400 M2/S2 PER REGIONAL
VWP DATA/. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE ANTICIPATED SQUALL
LINE. THEREFORE... ADDITIONAL REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCHES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL AREAS OF WW/S 244 AND 245.
OTHERWISE...RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS TRENDS SHOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING MUCINH OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH RECENT RADAR DATA
SHOWING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER OK HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
RAPIDLY. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SERN KS/WRN
MO...BUT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THAT
AREA UNTIL AFTER 04Z. THE THREAT FOR SVR EAST OF WW 244 ACROSS
CENTRAL MO/ERN IA APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL THROUGH 06Z...AS MUCAPE
VALUES REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG.
..CROSBIE.. 05/02/2008
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