Mesoscale Discussion 867 Concerning Tornado Watch 293

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/OK...NRN AR...CNTRL/SRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
293
...
VALID 102213Z - 110015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES.
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD
INTO ERN OK/KS LATE THIS AFTN WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FROM ERN KS SWD INTO ERN OK. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED WARM FRONT FROM N OF CHANUTE
KS SEWD INTO NCNTRL AR. S OF THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OWING TO UPR
60S DEW POINTS RIDING NWD BENEATH 7-7.5 DEG C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES.
WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS INTO SCNTRL MO...THE DEVELOPING LOW
OVER ECNTRL KS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MO OZARKS EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH SOME RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS INTO SCNTRL MO.
THROUGH MID-EVENING...EXPECT THAT THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL
REMAIN ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT IN ERN OK...EXTREME SWRN/SCNTRL MO
AND NRN AR. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER E AND N INTO
ECNTRL/SERN MO WILL LIKELY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL. IF THE AIR MASS
CAN FULLY RECOVER DOWNSTREAM INTO THE REMAINDER OF SRN MO...ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO AREAS JUST E
OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH AROUND 01-02Z.
..RACY.. 05/10/2008