MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081827Z - 081930Z
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS ERN CO IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE LOW LOCATED INVOF SERN CO WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET NOSES INTO THE REGION AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. MOST
FAVORABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER WRN KS...THE OK PANHANDLE...AND THE
NERN PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS
HAVE DEVELOPED INTO THE AREA. COOLING ALOFT AND MOISTENING IN LOW
LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE CAP TO BREAK...SUPPORTING SBCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORM RELATIVE INFLOW FROM THE SSE
NEAR 20 KTS AND INCREASING FLOW IN MID LEVEL WILL CREATE SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HURLBUT.. 05/08/2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment