Public Severe Weather Outlook

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHWEST IOWA
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL KANSAS
SMALL PART OF WEST UPPER MICHIGAN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEST AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO
CONCENTRATIONS OF HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER...ONE IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM COLORADO WILL ARRIVE IN THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AREA OF CLOUDS AND EARLY DAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO DESTABILIZE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY UNFOLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM
IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA AND TRANSLATE NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG BOTH
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND NEAR THE GROUND FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WAS POISED TO SURGE NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...THE NUMBER OF STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE.
A WEAKENING DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILE AND A CONTINUAL FEED OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN EVOLUTION INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN
IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. AT THAT TIME...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 70 MPH WITH A FEW STORMS.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.