MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL-NWRN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
281
...
VALID 090019Z - 090115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 281 CONTINUES.
PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALSO PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO AN MCS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH
INTO PARTS OF SRN KS/NRN OK TO THE ESE OF WW 281.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NM...WITH A 75 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET /PER
TCC WIND PROFILER/ IN THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
NM INTO OK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN THE
EXIT REGION OF THIS STRONG JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ONGOING
SUPERCELLS...CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE N OF DDC. ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN PART OF WW 281 AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT...NOW OVER SWRN KS...
ENCOUNTERS THE GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1000 J/KG/ LOCATED E OF A
LBL-GCK LINE. INCREASING SLY LLJ /35-45 KT/ EXTENDING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING/BOWING MCS AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADS
EWD AND THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED
DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF SRN KS/NRN OK.
PETERS.. 05/09/2008
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