Mesoscale Discussion 810

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL INTO PARTS OF NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071659Z - 071830Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WEST OF LUBBOCK.
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING NEAR A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY...WITHIN BROADER SCALE CIRCULATION SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLOWLY NOSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
NEGLIGIBLE CAP...AND IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK THROUGH 19-20Z. IF
THIS OCCURS...LAPSE RATES BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ARE BECOMING
VERY STEEP...CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MAIN
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE TRIPLE POINT LOW BETWEEN ABILENE AND WICHITA FALLS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROBABLY WILL BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AND... THOUGH
THE MAIN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE EAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY.
KERR.. 05/07/2008