Southwest winds will cause temperatures to skyrocket today. Some areas around Hollis could approach 100. Dallas will likely break a record high today. Their record high is 98, the OKC record high is 97. Many areas will be within a few degrees of a record. I am slightly concerned about fire danger in western Oklahoma. Southwest winds will turn northeast today as a weak trough pushes across the state. Winds have already turned northwesterly across parts of the panhandle behind the trough. A few showers may develop along the trough in northwest Oklahoma later this afternoon. A few more showers may develop tonight mainly across northern and eastern Oklahoma. High clouds will continue to stream across the state over the next few days. The northeast winds on Tuesday should drop temperatures a few degrees, but not much. Winds turn back to the southeast on Wednesday and highs will return to the 90s. The winds will be out of the southeast practically every day through the holiday weekend. The next front of any significance looks to be a back door cold front the following Tuesday morning.
Of more concern is the upper level pattern. A ridge of high pressure centered across the western US is forecast to break down and move into the south-central and perhaps southeast US over the next week. During the move, an omega block will form with the upside down U of the omega centered right over Oklahoma. This looks ominously similar to the pattern which produced numerous flash flood events last year. Fortunately, the eastern blocking low looks to progress east slowly and may prevent this pattern from setting up long term.
There are indications of a significant low forming in the omega block over south Texas during Wednesday. This could set up a heavy rain event for parts of Texas. The low is forecast to drift north into southern Oklahoma on Thursday. A high pressure ridge sets up just east of us Friday through Sunday. It appears to be a "dirty high" with lots of thunderstorms to its west. There are indications of a significant heavy rain event across the Texas panhandle on Sunday. There may be some severe weather, but as mentioned in Putnam's discussions, winds are unidirectional. In addition, the area is in the front right quadrant of an exiting jet. This favors digging and may keep the system out to our west a while, however it does not favor tornadoes or significant severe weather. It's great news for drought-stricken areas, including far western Oklahoma. However it may be too much all at once.
As the back door front arrives early next Tuesday, it is forecast to stall across the state. This may create a flash flooding event but it is far too early to tell. Rain chances finally end next Thursday.
OKC 83 62/88 62/90 72/92 68/90 68/87 68/86 68/86 68/80 68/86 70/90 71/92
Pops: tonight 20%, Wednesday 10%, Thursday 30%, Friday 30%, Saturday 40%, Sunday 30%, Monday 40%, Tuesday 20%, Wednesday 20%, Friday 10%.Windy Wednesday, Thursday, Breezy Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
Windy next Thursday and Friday.
State forecast at www.okcfox.com
Greg Whitworth-used with permission
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