Mesoscale Discussion 1082

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
03:55 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...FAR SRN SD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
386
...
VALID 292055Z - 292230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 386 CONTINUES.
A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB AND SRN SD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT INITIATE. A NEW WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 386 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN NEB AND SRN SD. A WARM FRONT
EXISTS NEAR THE NEB-SD STATE-LINE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN IA.
CUMULUS IS PRESENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NRN NEB AND
THIS CU FIELD SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET OVER ECNTRL NEB IS QUITE STRONG AND WILL FAVOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
SUPERCELLS THAT PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL AND NE NEB.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008