Mesoscale Discussion 798

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062014Z - 062215Z
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN-SWRN KS AND POSSIBLY
SEWD INTO NWRN OK INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM EXTREME ERN CO SWWD THROUGH ERN NM. A WEAK WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW OK NWWD THROUGH SWRN KS. STEEP 7.5-8 C/KM
850-500 MB MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EAST OVER THE MOIST
AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH NWRN OK. HIGH BASED STORMS
CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED AIR JUST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES EAST AND INTERCEPTS THE MOIST AXIS. MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT AND VEERED SWLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH BULK
SHEAR MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SHORT TERM LIMITING FACTORS. HOWEVER...THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A NRN STREAM
IMPULSE. THIS ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE
VERTICAL SHEAR THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
..DIAL.. 05/06/2008