Storm Potential Rising

Just received from the National Weather Service-


Still expecting severe storms to develop quickly after 3pm today. Front has made fast progress and at 1215 pm was just west of the OKC metro area and through much of western north Texas counties. All of our models show the front stalling and maybe even backing up a bit later today, placing it along or just west of a line from around Ponca City to El Reno to Wichita Falls by around 3PM. Cap appears to be weakening slowly, and we are fairly confident it will weaken enough to allow storms to form along the front this afternoon. Very unstable air mass already in place and it will become more unstable with breaks in the clouds being observed and increasing low level moisture. Wind shear will also be strong, but there are some questions about the low level wind shear that would create a higher tornado threat.

If you're in the risk area, here are some things to think about and keep an eye on...

1) surface winds. Winds from the southeast will help create stronger low level wind shear and enhance a storm's potential to rotate.
2) frontal position. Storms are expected to develop rapidly along the front. Areas east of the front should be alert.
3) early warnings. Storms are expected to become severe rapidly so watch for early severe thunderstorm warnings.
4) tornado watch. I would anticipate a tornado watch being issued by around 3pm, if not sooner.
5) storm motion. Storms that turn hard to the right (moving more east-southeast or southeast) will have an enhanced tornado potential.
6) splitting storms. Watch for storms splitting, with one moving northeast, and the other moving east-southeast. The left moving storm (NE) will have the potential to produce giant damaging hail.

Spotters should be aware of this and use radar data to help them position safely.

Will be updating the multimedia briefing soon.

Thanks,
Rick--
Rick SmithWarning Coordination Meteorologist