MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MS...AL...NW GA...SE TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
278
...
VALID 082013Z - 082215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 278 CONTINUES.
IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW
278...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY ALREADY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF DIMINISHING NEAR ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SPREADING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA. AND...AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN AREA...AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR...BY 21-22Z... CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
UNCERTAIN.
A POCKET OF WARM DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
ATLANTA AREA INTO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS. AND...THOUGH SOME
MOISTENING MAY OCCUR ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEXT FEW HOURS
...DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS BECOMES THE
CASE...THE GUST FRONT COULD REMAIN STRONG AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF
WATCH ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH 23-00Z.
OTHERWISE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SQUALL LINE...ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
BUT...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF SELMA.
KERR.. 05/08/2008
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