MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/NE TX INTO S CNTRL/ERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
273
...
VALID 072013Z - 072215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 273 CONTINUES.
ADDITIONAL WW/S/ WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED EAST/SOUTH OF WW 273 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS COLD MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS NOW MIGRATING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BENEATH SUBSIDENT DRY SLOT TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE MID/UPPER
CIRCULATION...THE DRY LINE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY SHARPENING
...AND LIKELY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE THROUGH AREAS NEAR/
EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX INTO THE WACO/AUSTIN
VICINITY BY 23Z. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...SEEMS LIKELY TO
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE
NEAR THE 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF
HOUSTON INTO AREAS WEST OF THE ARKLATEX.
THOUGH MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT MODEST...AROUND 1000
J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH A BROADLY CYCLONIC... 70-80
KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AND...LOW- LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK
FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
KERR.. 05/07/2008
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