Mesoscale Discussion 766

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND EASTERN KS INTO MUCH OF
MO/PORTIONS OF IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
244
...
245
...
VALID 020429Z - 020600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 244...245...CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCHES 244/245 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. WITH A
SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...REPLACEMENT WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE COORDINATED BY
0530Z-06Z.
A FEW QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...WITH HISTORY OF LARGE
HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES...CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO FAR
WESTERN MO AT THIS TIME. THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MOST LIKELY OWING
TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED CINH. NEVERTHELESS...ANY STORMS IN
THE SHORT TERM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO WILL BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES /AND SEVERE HAIL/ OWING TO A MODERATELY STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET/RICH SRH ENVIRONMENT.
OTHERWISE...THE MOST DOMINANT CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL BE ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES THE COLD FRONT
STEADILY OVERTAKING EAST CENTRAL KS/WEST CENTRAL OK AS OF
0415Z...WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ADVANCING EASTWARD ALONG THE KS
TURNPIKE/I-35. THE SOUTH EXTENT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ZIPPERING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL OK...AND SHORT TERM
TRENDS/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SAME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE OKC METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VICINITY
THROUGH 06Z-09Z. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVING RETREATED
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT IS INTERCEPTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /REFERENCE 00Z NORMAN
RAOB/. DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE
HAIL/SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.
IT IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL BE REQUIRED TO REPLACE MUCH OF
EXISTING WATCHES 244/245...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
OK...EASTERN KS...AND A LARGE PART OF MO.
..GUYER.. 05/02/2008