Update From EOC And NWS

Another active day ( and night) of severe weather ongoing across the area. More significant storms, and perhaps tornadoes, are expected tonight.

Things have been busy this morning, but will attempt to put together a multimedia briefing this afternoon.

Details on what we're expecting are best described in the hazardous weather outlook we just issued (see below).

Rick

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK1158 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101200-HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-1158 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHTACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERNNORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERNOKLAHOMA. LOCATION...THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLDENVILLE...TOCHICKASHA ...TO LAWTON...TO VERNON...TO KNOX CITY. THE SLIGHTRISK AREA COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TONIGHT. TIMING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND HALF DOLLARSIZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND DARK INTO THE OVERNIGHTHOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THERISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHEROPERATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PEOPLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SIGNIFICANTSEVERE STORMS AFTER DARK AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...INCLUDINGTHE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. BE SURE YOUR WEATHER RADIO IS SET ANDREADY TO ALERT FOR WARNINGS IN YOUR AREA. DISCUSSION...A VARIETY OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL COME TOGETHER TO BRING THE THREATFOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIMEHOURS. AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THESOUTHWESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPENTHIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TOMOVE NORTHWARD ...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMALATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILLCONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXASAND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THEAPPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM...THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT ANDSURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERESULTING UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AREEXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE MOSTINTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK ACROSS THEMODERATE RISK AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILLADVANCE. IF IT MAKES IT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTINDICATES...THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD. PROBABILITY TABLE...VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY APR 10.PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...FLOODING RAINS ARE ALSOLIKELY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FLOOD WATCH IS INEFFECT THESE AREAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THURSDAY MORNING INSOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER STORM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVEQUICKLY EAST. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS ARE A FEW TORNADOES INSOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE NOON. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEASTOKLAHOMA...BUT SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING. SOME FLOODING MAY BEONGOING FROM THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOONTODAY.$$SMITH



-- Rick SmithWarning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service - Norman Forecast Office