Mesoscale Discussion 716

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB...NW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 242233Z - 250000Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SW NEB AND NW KS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AS STORMS INITIATE. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
MAY ALSO DEVELOP. A WW SHOULD BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 30 TO 60 MINUTES.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS WRN AND
CNTRL NEB WITH A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING
NE OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS FAR ERN CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS ALSO
LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. AS THIS
JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
SUPERCELLS DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES MAY ALSO
DEVELOP WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.
..BROYLES.. 04/24/2008