MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN AR...EXTREME SERN MO...FAR W KY...WRN
TN...EXTREME SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182007Z - 182200Z
A DEVELOPING LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY GIVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS
IT MOVES FROM NERN AR/SERN MO INTO FAR W KY...WRN TN AND FAR SRN IL
THROUGH LATE AFTN. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION/TSTMS HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING ALONG AN
EWD MOVING COLD FRONT SINCE 18Z JUST W OF THE MS RVR VLY. THIS LINE
WAS MOVING ENE AT 25-30 KTS AND WILL IMPACT THE MEMPHIS
AIRPORT/METRO AREA 2030-2100Z...AND THEN MOVE INTO FAR SRN IL/W KY
AFTER 22-23Z.
DOWNSTREAM LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN WERE RATHER POOR OWING TO
CLOUDS/PCPN...BUT VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCD WITH AN
UPSTREAM UPR LOW WAS DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING THE COLD FRONT
CIRCULATION. THE BAND HAS BECOME ALIGNED NORMAL TO THE WSWLY MEAN
WIND VECTORS...AND SOME SMALL-SCALE BOWING MAY OCCUR WITH THE LINE
AS IT CONTINUES NEWD. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND GUSTS...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT GUSTY WINDS /ISOLD GUSTS APPROACHING SVR/ MAY
OCCUR.
..RACY.. 04/18/2008
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