Message from Greg at Fox 25 TV

** High Fire Danger Today **
** Severe Storms Northwest OK Wednesday evening **
** Strong Storms Thursday Morning, then Shifting into Eastern OK **
** More Severe Weather Starting Sunday **

Low level jet stream has already kicked in this morning. A tower crew climbing our broadcast tower discovered 50-60 mph gusts when attempting to change the top light 1,600 feet up. I called OUN and notified them before the 12 balloon launch to get a jump on things. The low level jet was not expected to be this far east pre-sunrise. This may affect afternoon temperatures and push them a couple of degrees higher than MOS projections as the winds mix to the surface.

Fire danger will be extreme across much of the area today as relative humidities will be quite low. Temperatures will reach the mid 70s in western Oklahoma. The low level jet may cause stronger winds overnight especially across northwest Oklahoma, with gusts possibly reaching 50 mph.

GFS and NAM are in excellent agreement this morning. Clouds will increase tomorrow as weak moisture returns across the area. By sunset, CAPE around 1000 j/kg will be in place across far northwest Oklahoma. A cold front will be oozing south out of southwest Kansas (a lee side slipper). A dry line will hang off of this front into the eastern Texas panhandle. Thunderstorms may form near the intersection of these two fronts, possibly from Beaver/Harper/Woods/Alfalfa counties around sunset. Helicity increases starting close to sunset and becomes quite strong overnight. Therefore, tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The storms are expected to move northeast into southern Kansas.
An outflow boundary from the storms may force the front farther southeast Wednesday overnight. I am not sure where re-ignition will take place, but there's a decent possibility the storms may continue overnight and build down into the state. MOS guidance indicates very little temperature spread across parts of the area for Thursday, indicating rain may be ongoing during peak heating. Storms would be coming in at an unfavorable time for extremely severe weather. The depth of low level moisture is a concern, however helicity may be high enough for severe weather regardless. The afternoon severe threat appears to be in eastern Oklahoma in unfavorable chase territory Thursday.

Friday looks cool during the morning, with mostly sunny skies and south-southwesterly winds. The dry airmass in place may favor grass fires, however winds are expected to remain fairly light.
The rest of this discussion is highly dependent upon mesoscale changes which may take place, and there may be a great deal of variance to storm location and frontal positioning. GFS models are consistent in developing a warm front near the Red River early Saturday and lifting it rapidly northward. It should cross I-40 by around 1 p.m. This will lead to a relatively cool morning but a substantial jump in temperature during the afternoon. As humidity increases, clouds will become more widespread as we head into Saturday night. GFS hints towards a minor shortwave during the evening and the low level jet will be in place.
Sunday may start off with stratus clouds. A weak shortwave looks to cross around mid-morning. GFS shows CAPE is expected to climb around 1000 j/kg during the afternoon but area may actually be in subsidence if the wave does indeed cross during the morning. I have 20% in for Sunday right now. Fire danger will be extreme across western Oklahoma behind the dry line several days next week and temperatures will skyrocket into the upper 90s in some areas. Wouldn't be totally out of the question to see temps near 100 degrees somewhere in far southwest OK early in the week behind the dry line. GFS shows the dry line sitting across US highway 183 by evening.

The dry line is expected to move east to near US highway 81 by Monday evening. A shortwave will have passed to our north around sunrise but there may be time for the airmass to recover. GFS shows CAPE around 2000 j/kg on Monday but little if any lifting mechanism during peak heating. Either one or two storms may pop, or the energy might be wasted (capped).

There is some question about what will happen next Tuesday. GFS shows dry line backing up to be near US highway 183 by afternoon. A shortwave passes north during the afternoon and may be enough to light up the dry line with storms. A front will be crashing south from Kansas. Some runs of the GFS are indicating the highest Cape, around 3,000 j/kg to be in eastern Oklahoma so the positioning of the dry line and front is a little uncertain. The cold front should clear OKC by sunrise Wednesday. Winds will be out of the east for the next few days and most of the storms "should" remain in Texas if the front doesn't lift back north.

OKC 71 52/75 54/59 40/70 46/78 59/80 60/82 63/83 52/73 48/62 46/65 52/69
Windy: Today, Wednesday, somewhat Thursday, somewhat Saturday, Sunday, somewhat next Tuesday.
POPS: 70% Thursday, 20% Friday morning early, 20% Sunday, 10% Monday, 40% Tuesday, 30% Wednesday, 20% Thursday.

graphics at www.okcfox.com

Greg