Severe weather still looks like a good bet this afternoon and evening across southern Oklahoma. All models have been indicating surface winds veering to the southwest across much of central and western Oklahoma during the afternoon. The only area that does not veer is in south-central Oklahoma, from Pauls Valley south and from there northeast toward Muskogee. This corresponds well with the moderate risk area. 4 KM WRF wants to create some supercellular activity around Ardmore around 5 p.m.
However, guidance and current surface features suggest triple point will be slow to form and be somewhere between Altus and Lawton by this evening. Water vapor imagery and 500 mb vorticity from models show a shortwave across Arizona around noon moving east. This system may not make it to the area before the dryline begins to retreat westward. Therefore, it is entirely possible the dryline could retreat back to Childress before storms fire.
The attendant warm front was predicted to be farther north than it actually is. Current surface map places it from a low west of Alva and drapes south to west of OKC to near Duncan then runs east just south of Ardmore. It could move a little farther north before stalling.
Dry line evident across west-central Oklahoma with dew points falling into the 30s. A cold front appears to be just behind the dryline from west of Alva to near Woodward then drapes back westard through the TX panhandle north of Borger.
With veered winds in central and much of western Oklahoma, the severe threat has been reduced somewhat. It is very possible storms may wait for the cold front to move southeast into central Oklahoma and the upper storm out west to arrive before widespread storms fire.
Some model runs have been indicating a slowing of the front as it approaches southeast Oklahoma overnight. This could potentially lead to an overrunning flash flood situation across eastern Oklahoma and possibly central or south-central parts of the state. The chance of rain from OKC southeast tonight appears higher than during the daylight hours. Numerous flood watches are posted from eastern Oklahoma all the way through Kentucky and southern Indiana.
As the system departs early tomorrow, cloud cover should clear the area by afternoon. Lows should be in the mid 40s with highs in the lower 60s with a brisk north wind during the first half of the day.
Winds will turn back to the south for Saturday, after a cool morning with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. A developing trough in eastern Colorado will assist a weak front and help it drop from Wyoming/Montana in behind it coming up for Sunday. The trough will create breezy winds across the state on Saturday.
Winds turn to the north by around noon in OKC on Sunday as the cold front passes. An upper level storm will cross Nebraska during this time period but it appears the upper support is too far north to add any mention of rain. Highs should be in the upper 60s in central Oklahoma both Saturday and Sunday.
On Monday, a small amount of vorticity is seen crossing the area and winds will be out of the south. Low pressure begins developing along the lee of the rockies again and will start to kick the winds up. Low pops will be kept for this time period.
Another shot of weak vorticity crosses on Tuesday with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds increase out of the south and temperatures will climb into the 70s. A warm front will begin lifting from Texas late in the day.
A significant upper storm system approaches from the west on Wednesday with the low out west. Storms may be ongoing during the morning along the lifting warm front. A dryline approaches from the west as well. There looks to be significant potential for severe weather this day.
7 day:
http://www.okcfox.com/newsroom/wx/images/WEB_KOKH_7day.JPG
More details and state forecast at www.okcfox.com
Greg Whitworth/Fox 25 Used with permission
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment