MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/ERN KS/WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172151Z - 172215Z
WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NERN OK INTO FAR ERN KS/WRN MO.
WIDESPREAD AREA OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN KS/NWRN MO INTO SRN IA
AND MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S INTO NERN OK/SERN KS APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET WHICH EXTENDED INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN ERN KS IN RESPONSE
TO THIS AREA OF ASCENT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...INCREASING SSWLY DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD INTO THE REGION OF MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT AND AID IN ADDITIONAL
TSTMS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MEAN WINDS OF 45 KT COMBINED WITH
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND 18Z LAMONT OK
SOUNDING IN NRN OK SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT...IN
ADDITION TO A HAIL THREAT. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT
INTO ERN KS/WRN MO...AND THIS MAY REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS
TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY TRACK NNEWD THIS EVENING.
..PETERS.. 04/17/2008
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