MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/WCENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241949Z - 242215Z
ISOLATED TO SCT SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 22Z OVER WCENTRAL/SWRN TX.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX BIG BEND AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS AND SFC TEMPERATURES INDICATE LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF MLCINH
EXISTED AHEAD OF A STATIONARY DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABI SWWD
TO BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SANDERSON. ALTHOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE IS
GENERALLY WEAK...TSTM INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ALONG A SEPARATE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY THAT EXISTS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /500 MB FLOW AROUND 35 KTS PER THE RECENT FCST
SOUNDINGS/ WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND WITH
ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP.
..CROSBIE.. 04/24/2008
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