Severe Weather Expected

As many of you know, Saturday marks the anniversary of the F5 tornado in Oklahoma. This tornado occurred May 3, 1999 so we are all watching the weather very carefully. If you would like to see a few pictures of the damage, you can view them and read other weather related information at my site, Stormspotter. Org.
Bonnie (stormspotter)

The following weather report comes to you from Greg Whitworth, Fox 25 TV and is used with permission.

** Severe Weather expected across central and eastern OK Thursday **

There are very few changes from yesterday's forecast. Fire danger will be high today and tomorrow across western Oklahoma due to strong southerly winds. Winds will be stronger on Wednesday. Moisture return on Wednesday is weak and there is a formidable cap in place with no lifting mechanism even though a dry line will be edging into the western counties.
A low stratus deck may creep up on the low level jet on Thursday morning, setting the stage for a humid day. The low level jet will be present the next few nights. A shortwave kicks out from the "vort bowl" (positioned over southwest Kansas) mentioned yesterday and will cross across Oklahoma, possibly slightly negatively tilted \ as we head into Thursday afternoon. CIN looks weak and CAPE could be up to 3,000 j/kg. Helicity is most impressive during the earlier part of the day but looks modest enough to produce rotating storms Thursday evening. The dry line will set up near I-35 or Highway 81 during the afternoon and some clearing may occur just ahead of the dry line. A triple point around the Enid-Ponca City-Stillwater area will connect the dry line to a cold front draped northeast to southwest from eastern Kansas to west-central Oklahoma. NAM and GFS suggest storms may form first along the cold front in southeast Kansas but I wouldn't rule out first initiation along the dry line as we have seen several times in the past. It is possible the storms might wait until they are just east of OKC to become severe. Of course this is going into "unfavored chase territory" quickly where the hills and trees become the primary landscape.

The cold front will bring highs in the lower 70s in OKC for the weekend. Several shortwaves rotate northeast out of Texas and across Oklahoma Sunday through Tuesday. One arrives around 9 a.m. Sunday, another 9 a.m. Monday, with a third around 4 a.m. Monday. With an uncapped airmass and ridging staying just north of us, it appears we will have the ingredients in place for a widespread rain and thunderstorm event (probably of the non-severe variety). This is just what western Oklahoma needs! Rain could last through Monday and possibly even Tuesday. I have started dropping high temperatures during this time frame to account for this.

Looking down the road, it still appears severe weather could return sometime late next week.

OKC 82 55/83 63/84 51/72 45/71 46/66 46/65 44/68 42/72 53/79 62/77 50/62
pops: 40% Thursday, 40% Sunday, 30% Monday, 20% Tuesday, 20% next Thursday, 10% Saturday.
Windy Tuesday-Thursday, Breezy Sunday & Monday, Thursday and Friday next week.

More graphics and details at www.okcfox.com

Greg