Cold with Storms To Follow

Significant changes to the forecast have been made, including two icing situations now showing up.

As we go into Sunday, an arctic cold front will extend from Woodward - Chickasha - Ada - McAlester - Poteau by sunrise. North of the front, temperatures should be in the 20s at daybreak. South of the front, it will mostly be in the 30s.
The front will ooze southwest as the day goes on. North of the front, highs will be in the 30s for the northeast and north-central OK, 40s in central and west central, with a few 50s in southeast OK and some 60s along the Red River. HPC guidance suggests front may actually slip farther than any models are predicting. They actually drive the front across the river into Texas by evening, and I believe this is a good possibility. With the new 0Z ETA out, I have dropped highs by a few degrees areawide, except southeast OK where I actually raised temperatures slightly.

A deep plume of gulf moisture will start it's march northward on Sunday and arrive in Oklahoma Sunday night - Monday AM. A few miles north of the front, which should be near the Red River, temperatures will be below freezing. This is a classic overrunning setup, with freezing drizzle appearing likely across the northern half of the state, including OKC. Right now I am placing the freezing drizzle north of a line from Cordell to Chickasha to Purcell to Seminole to Muskogee. I am wondering if I might be a couple of degrees too low with temperatures tomorrow night, but with the front showing such strong properties, I will not make any changes. Afternoon temperatures were in the 10s on Saturday in Nebraska, if that gives any indication.

Temperatures should recover enough across all the area for a changeover to drizzle through the day Monday. Down along the red river, severe weather is likely to erupt along the warm front. There could be significant severe weather, with tornados, large hail and damaging winds mainly across north Texas. I totally disagree with SPC Day 3 which had most of Oklahoma outlooked. NWS Norman apparently disagreed too, and pushed outlook somewhat south. I think even NWS is too far north. Once you get north of OKC, there will likely be little if any severe risk. I think north of the front there may be some hailers but once you get entrenched in the cold air in northern OK air should become more stable. Most of the severe weather will likely ride the front. Models have been wanting to bring the front northward as a warm front. This is a typical bias seen. Cold arctic air is extremely difficult to displace, so despite strengthening gradient with storm system out west, I do not believe it can yank the front north much at all. This should keep tornado threat confined to southern Oklahoma or possibly north Texas. If the front does actually move across the river into Texas, there's a pretty good possibility it may never make it back across the river into Oklahoma. That would place most of the severe weather in north Texas.

Drizzle and overrunning will hold down temperatures on Monday. I have gone 1 to 2 categories below newest MOS guidance for highs given thick cloud cover during max heating. I wasn't quite sure what to do with Tuesday morning. A reinforcing surge of cold air is seen making it's way down to meet the other front. It will likely increase winds which could dry roads out, preventing another slick morning. Pseudo-warm front tail will extend north and south from eastern Kansas into central OK by daybreak but may be washed away by the secondary cold push.

Northerly winds on Tuesday should hold temps down into the lower 40s again with mostly cloudy skies. I have gone below MOS again on this day.
There should be a very nice warm up on Wednesday with plenty of sunshine. However, fire danger will likely reach the extreme category with strong south winds and highs in the 60s across the southern half of the state.
A weak cold front arrives for Valentines day but will have a strong north wind with it. Clouds will roll in as well and it should become cloudy by Thursday evening. This is where it gets interesting. A cutoff low in the southwest will start rolling east. Right now it appears the track of the low would be along the Red River. However, the GFS keeps the 540 (snow line) way to the north. I am having a hard time believing that. If that is true though, it would probably wind up being an icy event. BUFKIT soundings have been cranking out tons of Freezing Rain (2" in OKC, less than an inch north) for Friday night into Saturday. Precip type is in question but more than likely it will be frozen if the low does track across the river. GFS wants to pull the system northeast as it heads into Arkansas but I do not believe this will happen. All winter the GFS has wanted to pull systems radically northeast near the Arkansas border and it has not verified. System will likely continue to track straight east into Arkansas with a slight northerly track.

After system clears out, there should be a few days of calm weather Sunday - Tuesday.. however the following Tuesday looks windy as south winds return.

Updated graphics on www.okcfox.com

Greg Whitworth/used with permission