Mesoscale Discussion 745

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 262246Z - 262345Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WCNTRL TX OVER THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND
WCNTRL TX OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 60 MINUTES.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE ACROSS FAR WEST TX WITH A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD ACRO9SS ERN NM. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S F ACROSS PARTS
OF SW TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500
TO 2000 J/KG AND THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING ATTM. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE REGION...ENOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS FOR LOWER-END
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 04/26/2008