We'll get a break today, before severe weather and even flooding become a problem for parts of the area Wednesday and Thursday.
First, a note about Monday's storms - we saw numerous supercell storms across the area yesterday, including a large storm that prompted the day's only tornado warning near Electra, TX, at least three impressive supercells that dropped large hail south of Stillwater, and a supercell that moved across northern sides of the OKC metro around 11PM. We had almost every ingredient for a significant severe weather outbreak in place on Monday. Had the dewpoints been 5 to 8 degrees higher, and the instability a little higher, we would likely have seen significant tornadoes with most of those storms.
Now, onto the forecast - on Wednesday we'll watch the front that passed through the region this morning move back northward as a warm front, as a powerful upper level trough moves into the central U.S.. This system will have a lot of wind shear, and the moisture will be more plentiful this time. There are questions about how things will develop during the day on Wednesday (will we see widespread rain and storms form north of the front, etc). but, it is a day to watch carefully. SPC has a moderate risk for much of southern Oklahoma and north Texas for Wednesday.
The risk of severe weather continues Thursday, but the emphasis will shift more toward the potential for heavy - maybe flooding - rains.
Keep an eye on our enhanced web page for more details on this developing situation.
-- Rick Smith
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
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