MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262043Z - 262245Z
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 2230Z. A
WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.
AT 2030Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CONGESTED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE
NM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS 1MB/HR HAVE BEEN OCCURRING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE. 18Z MAF RAOB DEPICTED
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.5 - 8.5 DEG C. ONE OF THE
LIMITING FACTORS ATTM APPEARS TO BE THE SPARSE MOISTURE IN PLACE
CURRENTLY /LESS THAN 0.5 INCH PWATS/. HOWEVER...20Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF UPPER 40S TO 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ADVECTING NWWD. THIS WILL SUPPORT A N TO S GRADIENT OF MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES 500 - 1750 J/KG. WITH FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALOFT /50 KTS 0 - 6 KM/...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH ANY ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP.
AS STORMS MOVE SEWD CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MORE MOIST AIRMASS S OF THE
REGION...STORMS WILL THEN POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
..SMITH.. 04/26/2008
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