NWS and EOC Short Term Forecast

Latest from the National Weather Service-





SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

1233 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008



OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241900-

ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-

CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-

GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-

JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-

LOVE-MAJOR-MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-

POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WASHITA-WICHITA-

WILBARGER-WOODS-WOODWARD-

1233 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008



.NOW...

...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...



ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL

TAKE SHAPE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AT MIDDAY...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER

AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN

OKLAHOMA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. FARTHER SOUTH AND

WEST...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH SUNNY SKIES.



A JET STREAM DISTURBANCE HAD LIFTED THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO

KANSAS...CREATING A SURFACE WIND SHIFT. AT 1215 PM...THE WIND SHIFT

EXTENDED FROM GAGE TO MANGUM AND QUANAH. HUMIDITY WILL FALL RAPIDLY

BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT...RESULTING IN A DRYLINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO

BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED BY 2 TO 3 PM. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO

PUSH AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS... ALVA...WATONGA AND LAWTON IN

OKLAHOMA...AND ELECTRA AND BENJAMIN IN TEXAS...WITH FURTHER EASTWARD

MOVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.



ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR AND JUST EAST OF

THE DRYLINE AFTER 3 PM. THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT RISK FOR SEVERE

WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NUMBER OF STORMS WILL BE

GREATER TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.



$$



BURKE





Additional comments included:



While the forecast has only very slight chances of rain today, and the SPC moderate risk area is north of us into Kansas, we are growing increasingly concerned that thunderstorms will form along a dry line pushing into western Oklahoma. Given the amount of instability and wind shear, any storm that forms will become a supercell fairly quickly and will be capable of producing large damaging hail and even tornadoes.

While thunderstorms are not a certainty, if you see one developing on radar, anticipate warnings to follow soon. I would not be surprised to see a tornado watch issued for parts of our area before 4pm today. Storms will be most likely along and north of Interstate 40, including parts of the OKC metro area.





We will continue to monitor-