Mesoscale Discussion 734, Concerning Tornado Watch 232

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
232
...
VALID 252227Z - 252315Z
CORRECTED FOR WATCH TYPE
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 232 CONTINUES.
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN SCNTRL WI WILL
MOVE NWD ACROSS NCNTRL WI INCREASING THE SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF WW
232. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW
ISSUANCE...HOWEVER A LOCAL EXTENSION REMAINS POSSIBLE.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW OVER FAR WRN WI WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST PAUL ESEWD TO NEAR GREEN BAY. SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG/ ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A 40 TO 50
KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
ALLOWING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO EXPAND NWD ACROSS MUCH OF
NCNTRL WI. INCREASING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
THE CORRIDOR WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL NORTH OF WW 232 SHOULD REMAIN
NARROW AND FOR THIS REASON...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN NCNTRL WI.
..BROYLES.. 04/25/2008