MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051919Z - 052115Z
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SPREADING WWD
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AS FAR W AS PECOS AND FT.
STOCKTON. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE CAP ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MTNS WHERE TCU WERE NOTED AS OF 19Z. MODIFIED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AS THEY TRAVEL EWD AT 15-20 MPH. MID LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG...BUT SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO WSWLY
AND WILL HELP MAXIMIZE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO 35-45 KT.
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY
LONG HODOGRAPHS...WITH SOME SPLITTING POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY.
..JEWELL.. 05/05/2008
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