Mesoscale Discussion 788

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK AND ERN PARTS OF THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051910Z - 052045Z
TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN SW KS/NW OK AND ERN PARTS OF THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES. WW POSSIBLE.
TCU HAVE BEEN FORMING IN SW KS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HRS...ALONG AND
SW OF STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY EARLY MORNING STORMS IN THE
W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON DIVIDE...FROM EXTREME NE NM INTO THE SE
CORNER OF CO.
THE LATEST SFC DATA SHOW A TONGUE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 50S F SPREADING NNW INTO THE ERN PART OF
THE TX PANHANDLE...ALONG AND JUST W OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CDS TO E OF AMA. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING...EXPECT SBCAPE TO RISE TO AOA
1000 J/KG.
UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NM CONTINUES NEWD. COMBINATION
OF STRENGTHENING UVV AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO HOURS. GIVEN
35-40 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE STORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO THIS
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SVR.
..CORFIDI.. 05/05/2008