MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NRN NEB...NWRN IA...SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061556Z - 061730Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS S CNTRL SD...HELPING TO
PRODUCE THE CURRENT CONVECTION WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COEXIST. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL EVEN WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S OVER
MUCH OF ERN NEB/WRN IA/SWRN MN...WHILE DEWPOINTS STEADILY INCREASE
INTO THE LOWER 50S. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS ARE
MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE HAIL...POSSIBLY
BECOMING VERY LARGE...WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
JEWELL.. 05/06/2008
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