MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012102Z - 012230Z
TSTM INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELLS
WOULD LIKELY OCCUR...PREDICATED ON TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
20Z OUN RAOB HAS SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE CAPPING
INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE EARLIER 12Z RAOB. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAS SHOWN ATTEMPTS AT CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG
DRY LINE...PRIMARILY OVER S-CNTRL OK IN GRADY/STEPHENS COUNTIES.
MAJORITY OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNLIKELY THROUGH 00Z...AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS MODEST. STILL...12Z HI-RES WRF-NMM
DEPICTS ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INVOF CURRENT CU AREA AROUND 21Z. IF
THIS WERE TO INDEED OCCUR...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY THREATS. A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z INVOF N-CNTRL OK AS DEEPER ASCENT SPREADS EWD
FROM SERN CO/SWRN KS AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WAVE.
..GRAMS.. 05/01/2008
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