Here We Go Again

Fire danger will be extreme Saturday and Sunday as very strong south
winds are forecast. Humidity will be lowest on Saturday, especially
across northwest Oklahoma. Highs will be in the 70s with some upper 70s
in far northwest Oklahoma. Pressure gradient will be tight many days
over the upcoming week but temperatures will not be as warm. Cloud
cover will roll in on Sunday, and a cold front approaches from the
northwest.

The front is expected to cause a round of severe thunderstorms near the
I-44 corridor on Sunday. Some storms from central into southern
Oklahoma may contain large hail, and high winds. Flooding will also be
a concern by Sunday night. I can't rule out a tornado near the low
somewhere in far southwest OK or northwest TX from Childress to Wichita
Falls. One to two inches of precipitation is possible 60 miles either
side of I-44 and through much of eastern Oklahoma. The rain may chance
over to snow in northwest Oklahoma, from near Cheyenne to Woodward to
Alva and points southeast before ending. Northwest of this line, very
little moisture will fall.

NAM model runs seem to indicate a changeover to snow in OKC sometime
between midnight and 2 am Monday. Right now I am going with a rain-snow
mix as indicated by the NAM locally run from tv station WLNS in Lansing,
MI. The BUFKIT version has 0.5" of moisture which is 5 inches of snow
in OKC, Enid and Ardmore. GFS has none which would go along with the
WLNS WRF which keeps it a rain-snow mix. This will need to be watched
very closely. I suspect there could be slick roads going into Monday
morning in central and northwest Oklahoma.

Monday will be a cold day with temperatures remaining in the 30s. The
system should move to our east shortly after sunrise. Winds will be
brisk out of the north as the system exits, producing wind chills likely
in the lower 20s.

Winds start off light on Tuesday but pick up out of the south quickly.
Winds will be highest across northwest Oklahoma, closer to a developing
low. Another front arrives in OKC by around 3 a.m. on Wednesday. We
will see two days of northerly winds (Wednesday and Thursday) with highs
mostly in the 40s. In addition to the front on Wednesday which comes in
at an unfavorable time, a significant long wave trough passes around
noon on Thursday. As it does, we will be under weak high pressure at
the surface. Therefore, I have opted to leave pops out of Wednesday and
Thursday and just go with some cloud cover.

Sunshine returns on Friday, and temperatures should warm back into the
60s as we head into the weekend. A weak front passes the following Sunday.
Greg

Graphics updated www.okcfox.com ..
Day 8/9 forecast: Saturday - Partly Cloudy/High Clouds - 35/62
Sunday - Mostly Cloudy - 20% - 45/62, front passing at 6 p.m.