Fire danger will increase on Wednesday as another day of gusty
south-southwesterly winds are expected. Winds will be a little higher
than what we saw on Tuesday. Temperatures will reach 80 across
southwest Oklahoma with upper 70s elsewhere. Mild mornings are expected
the next few days with lows in the upper 40s to near 50.
A cold front develops to our west on Thursday, hanging through the Texas
panhandle, with a low in the northwest counties. A second front will be
draped across southern Kansas. The low will track from northwest
Oklahoma into the north-central parts of the state on Thursday. This
could spark off a few thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma during the
afternoon. The chance of rain in OKC is probably less than 20%.
The front remains draped across the central part of the state on
Friday. A second low develops somewhere south of OKC and will cause
another round of thunderstorms in north-central and northeast Oklahoma.
The upper level storm on Friday will be stronger than the one on
Thursday. Severe weather cannot be ruled out Friday, mainly in eastern
Oklahoma. I think SPC day 4 severe outlook in western Arkansas needs to
be brought farther west.
Skies should clear out Saturday behind the front with highs only
reaching the 50s. Winds will be breezy this day as well. Rain may
linger in northwest Arkansas as the system moves east.
It will become psychotically windy on Sunday afternoon with gusts over
40 mph common in western Oklahoma. Temperatures will jump into the 60s
again. Fire danger will be high. This is ahead of a significant bomb
of a low to our northwest.
A large upper level trough will enter on Monday. This will scoot the
massive low east. Severe weather appears likely Monday but pinpointing
the threat area is next to impossible. NOGAPS model develops storms
along the eastern high plains Sunday night and drags them southeast into
Oklahoma for the beginning of Monday. This would leave us with a rainy
cloudy mess early Monday. GFS wants to do the same thing but blow up a
second area of storms across northwest Texas and pull it northeast and
across the state. Some runs are showing a dry slot across central OK
during the afternoon. If this happens, this would place the severe
weather risk across the eastern part of the state. An area of snow may
develop behind the system across southern Kansas. A check of BUFKIT's
time line for the GFS keeps it all rain at Gage, even though the 540
line is close by.
MOS guidance seems way too middle of the road and I have adjusted temps
above and below MOS depending on the wind direction and speed. On most
days, cloud cover will have little affect on the temperature. MOS tends
to want to cool temperatures on stratus deck days that are very windy,
such as what we have forecast for Monday. I will go above MOS with
hopes there will not be storms during peak heating. Some GFS runs have
shown the dryline moving through early in the day (the dry slot
scenario). If that were to verify, temperatures could be well into the
70s. If it rains during peak heating, we may not get out of the 50s.
Tuesday is a crap shoot as well. ECMWF (European model) shows the low
diving south into west Texas with the cold front still hung up over
central Oklahoma. GFS is more progressive and pulls the system east
leaving us with sunshine. I will buy into the ECMWF at this time but
place only a slight chance of rain on Tuesday with the uncertainty. The
GFS does show us to be in a broad trough through at least early
Wednesday. This would also lean more towards the ECMWF solution. If
the ECMWF verifies, Tuesday could be cold and rainy instead of just
cool. I think we will be on the cooler side of the front on Tuesday, so
I have gone below most other forecasts.
Spring breakers will get to see some warmer temperatures and improving
weather as we go through next week. Temperatures should warm back close
to 70 by the following Thursday with another storm system arriving a
week from Friday.
Forecast graphics at www.okcfox.com
Day 8 - Wednesday - Mostly Sunny, 32/64
Day 9 - Thursday - Sunny and Windy, 37/70
Greg
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment