Changing Weather In Oklahoma and Surrounding Area

Highlights:
A freeze is expected in wind protected areas of the state Monday
morning. Please see graphics at www.okcfox.com for details.

Extreme Fire Danger:
Western 2/3rds of OK Monday
Western border counties Tuesday & Wednesday
Western 1/2 of state Thursday

Severe Storms:
Isolated Western 1/2 Wednesday (western row of counties remains dry)
Isolated Central / Eastern OK Thursday
Eastern OK / Arkansas Friday morning

It will become quite windy by noon statewide. With low dew points, fire
danger will be extreme and emergency managers should be prepared for a
response. As the high that gives us the freeze Monday morning moves
east, south winds will pump moisture back into the state. Tuesday and
Wednesday should be slightly less windy as the high moves away.

A weak cold front will creep into northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday evening,
just providing a wind shift to the north. A shortwave out of the
southwest will dissipate as it approaches Oklahoma. The front will lack
upper support and will hang up in northwest Oklahoma then retreat back
north as a warm front on Wednesday.

A dry line stays connected to the front and hangs south along the OK-TX
line Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday, enough moisture returns for
dew points in the 50s. NAM shows an area of stratus over the eastern
1/3rd of the state Wednesday morning extending into Arkansas. To the
west of the stratus, some sunshine is expected. This will create steep
lapse rates with CAPEs approaching 1500 j/kg Wednesday afternoon in
western Oklahoma. A weak positively tilted shortwave will arrive by
around 7 p.m. and could be just enough of a trigger for a couple of
isolated supercells. 1-3 km helicity appears sufficient for a risk of
tornadoes.

A much larger area of stratus surges north on Thursday morning. There
is some question as to how far north the stratus deck will extend. I
think it could very well encompass much of the state except the far
western counties. The dry line makes a push east toward US 81. As it
does, winds will turn to the southwest in western Oklahoma and
temperatures should easily reach the mid to upper 80s. In central parts
of the state, we should enjoy upper mid to upper 70s. With dry air in
place across much of western Oklahoma, fire danger will be extreme on
Thursday. Once again, we'll be dealing with high CAPE values by
afternoon with another weak trigger. Another positively titled
shortwave will arrive around 4 p.m. and could fire off isolated
supercells in central Oklahoma. The old warm front finally pushes south
and the entire front begins to light up Thursday night starting first in
Missouri and working backwards towards central Oklahoma. I have not seen
helicity data for this time period as of yet so I do not know what the
tornado risk will be on Thursday.

The cold front moves on through Thursday night so Friday will be cooler
with north winds. Severe weather moves into southeast Texas. Highs
look to be in the lower 60s Friday. Winds start calm on Saturday then
turn to the south-southeast. It will be breezy by evening as another
trough deepens to the west. Sunday looks windy with high fire danger
again. Moisture will be returning though. GFS points to an area of
1,000 j/kg CAPE Sunday evening around Childress. However there does not
seem to be a trigger for convection.

The following Monday could be quite interesting. A large stratus deck
appears likely Monday morning. GFS shows CAPE of 3,000 in Dallas by
evening. I suspect the CAPE area does not extend far enough northward
into Oklahoma. It will be windy and severe weather appears likely
especially in southern OK. A front looks to arrive around 1 p.m.,
followed by a strong short wave. The GFS has these two features out of
sync, with the upper support not arriving until 4 a.m. Tuesday. I
suspect the timing of this system will change over time.

OKC 33/64 46/72 53/74 55/76 47/63 39/65 44/67 50/63 44/57
POPS...wed 30%, thu 30%, mon 30%
Windy Monday, Breezy Tuesday & Wednesday, Windy Thursday, Breezy
Saturday, Windy Sunday & Monday.
full graphics at www.okcfox.com

Greg Whitworth/Fox 25-Used with permission.