Tropical Storm Ingrid Discussion With Advisory Number 10

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2007
...INGRID FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA AND WEAKEN...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 710
MILES...1145 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.6 N...50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER INGRID
HAS MATERIALIZED AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BASICALLY
SHAPELESS WITH NO OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT DETERIORATION
OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DECREASE IN DVORAK T-NUMBERS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PLAGUE OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER
INGRID THROUGH 5 DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SHRED THE CLOUD PATTERN...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. I AM SURPRISED THAT SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE OR EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING...DESPITE THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...ONLY THE GFS AND THE GFDL BASICALLY
WEAKEN INGRID.
INGRID IS MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW TRACK...
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS WHICH PREVAIL TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OPEN WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.