Tropical Depression Ingrid Advisory 16, System Continues To Weaken

Going out on a limb here, but I believe we are still dealing with an El
Nino. I will elaborate on more of this later.

Michelle

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2007
...INGRID REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.0 N...56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT
UNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON
HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS
EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE
GFDL. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES
HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT
TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.