Latest Tropical Weather Outlook And Last Advisory on Ingrid

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5:30 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
5:00 AM AST MON SEP 17 2007
...INGRID DISSIPATING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
INGRID IS DISSIPATING.
AT 5:00 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0
WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THE
REMNANTS OF INGRID ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS
CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED. MY INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FORECAST POINTS FOR A
BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.