All About Tropical Storm Ingrid, Latest Advisory And Discussions

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 655 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMS IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2007
...INGRID STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 655
MILES...1050 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...51.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND
FOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE 700 MB CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS AS INDICATED BY
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...THE
PLANE REPORTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAS NOT
SEEN WINDS ABOVE 34 KT SINCE THAT TIME. GIVEN THE AMORPHOUS
PATTERN ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS
EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE
STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO. SOME WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE
AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8...A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
STEERING VARIES ACCORDING TO THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF INGRID. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN THE LONG-RANGE AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE NEAR-TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...THEN IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR RECURVATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 61W.