Final Advisory For Humerto, Advisory 7 For Newly Upgraded Tropical Storm Ingrid

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 840 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007
...THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 840
MILES...1355 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N...48.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN ON A RESEARCH MISSION THIS
EVENING AND FOUND 35 KT WINDS USING THE ON-BOARD STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR). THESE WINDS MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL TO A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE NINTH NAMED
STORM OF THE YEAR.
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE SHEAR ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTENSIFY...LIKELY
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF INGRID. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE
SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE LONGER RANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
NEARLY 30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE STORM'S PATH.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT TONIGHT...
ESTIMATED AT 300/5. THE TRACK FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT PROBABLY
HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF INGRID. WATER
VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW HAS CAUSED A
VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO THE
LOW...AND MOVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
IS ASSUMED THAT INGRID WILL REMAIN WEAK AND STAY ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR NOW.
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 8 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL092007
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO PRODUCING RAINS IN SOUTHEAST...
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF MISSISSIPPI. FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE VERMILION
RIVER IN LOUISIANA.
AT 1000 PM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST...OR 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...10
KT..19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 25 MPH..21 KT..40 KM/HR WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB...OR 29.74
INCHES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORM TRACK.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 PM CDT
THURSDAY...
...TEXAS...
EAST BAY BAYOU 14.13 SOURCE JEFFERSON COUNTY
MESONET
WINNIE WETLANDS10.71 SOURCE JEFFERSON COUNTY MESONET
BEAUMONT CITY 6.53
GALVESTON 6.50
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 6.17
MCFADDEN 5.28
ORANGE 9N 5.19
LUMBERTON 3.32
...LOUISIANA...
LAKE ARTHUR 10SW 5.28
GRAND CHENIER 5.12
COCODRIE PUMPING PLANT 4.42
DE RIDDIER RADIO STATION KDLA 4.10
HANNA 3S 3.84
FORT POLK 3.69
JENNINGS 3.58
LAKE CHARLES PORT 3.17
NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON 2.46
...MISSISSIPPI...
HATTIESBURG 3.11
COLLINSVILLE 7SE 2.55
PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON MS 1.97 SOURCE USGS
NATCHEZ 1.88
UNION CHURCH 1.70
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...31.8 NORTH...91.5 WEST... THE
DEPRESSION WAS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 0400 ED CDT FRI. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2007
CORRECTED FOR DATE
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ANY DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.