TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT LOCATED ABOUT 1005 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO LOCATED ABOUT 25
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST WED SEP 12 2007
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1005
MILES...1620 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...46.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED IN ITS CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OR ESTIMATED INTENSITY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DVORAK...ADT...AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY...SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS INSTEAD THAT
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS OFFSET ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS SHOW THAT THERE
REMAINS SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS NOT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE CONVECTION...THIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
TD EIGHT IS SOUTH OF A WEAK DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
PROVIDING A STEERING OF ABOUT 280/10...SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THAN
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
NORTH OF 25N AT THE SAME LONGITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE TROUGH
SHOULD CUTOFF AND RETROGRADE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS HAS THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF WEAKENING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING AS
WELL AS INDUCING RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT THE LONGER
TIME PERIODS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS...UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE
DISCOUNTED AS THEY UNREALISTICALLY TAKE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.
THOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM 28C WATERS...NONE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE TAKES TD EIGHT TO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RATHER DRY AIR
JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TIME PERIODS
AND THE RATHER SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGE MODELS THROUGH
THREE DAYS AND A BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF CENTER...
AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1215 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30
KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS...AND ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...SOUTH
OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80
MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HUMBERTO IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992
MB...29.29 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 1215 AM CDT POSITION...29.4 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
115 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE HUMBERTO TO A
HURRICANE. BOTH THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE
BEEN INCREASED...AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE
UPGRADE IS BASED ON DATA RECEIVED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
This information is provided as a public service from the
National Hurricane Center
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