Tropical Storm Ingrid Advisory 12-Ingrid Experiencing Severe Southwesterly Shearing

I really don't think that Ingrid will survive this on going shear attack
from the westerlies. By the way, It's amazing that such things are
occurring at this point in the Atlantic Basin during this part of the
hurricane season.

Michelle

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...INGRID BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 575
MILES...930 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF INGRID
EARLY THIS MORNING. BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A
TOLL ON INGRID AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO WILL THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
BACK INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AROUND 12Z...AND A MORE ACCURATE
MEASUREMENT WILL BE TAKEN.
INGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY STRENGTHENING AND COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE DISSIPATION OF
THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...AFTER 3 DAYS OR SO THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX AND IF INGRID SURVIVES THAT LONG SOME OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
MAINTAINS INGRID AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. A GENERAL MOTION TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS INGRID...OR THE
REMNANT LOW OF INGRID...RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...BUT HAS SHIFTED A
BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.