Tropical Depression Ingrid 15

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2007
...LITTLE CHANGE WITH INGRID...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST OR ABOUT
405 MILES...650 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.9 N...55.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
THE CENTER OF INGRID IS MOSTLY EXPOSED ON NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
OVERALL...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID AND
CAUSE A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. QUIKSCAT SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS
IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN...BUT THERE
PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IN FACT...THE GFDL DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE GFS DOES THE SAME BY 96 HOURS.
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK
SYSTEM PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT THE
FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SURVIVAL CHANCES OF
INGRID.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...
ESTIMATED AT 285/9. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS SLOWLY
ERODED AWAY BY A TROUGH. IN GENERAL...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD THIS EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MODELS RECOGNIZING THE
SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE WEST FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.